On the “Brexit” news and the stock market:
The thing about bad news is that it’s only bad because people expect everyone else to think its bad, so they sell in anticipation of that, which makes it true.
The Brexit-referendum news didn’t “destroy 3 trillion dollars” (as I heard some shallow talk show hosts parrot on AM radio this morning). Speculators sold shares because they predicted that other speculators would sell shares, which drove down share prices, just as they had predicted.
The real valuations of the companies that those are shares of did not change. Speculators are typically willing to pay more for a share of stock than its real valuation because they predict that some other speculator will be willing to pay slightly more. The only thing that happened after the Brexit news is that the extra margin that speculators were willing to pay for shares of companies temporarily shrank. You can be sure that if any stock prices fell sufficiently to reach their real valuation, the speculators would gobble them up, because they know that after the news blows over, the trading prices of those stocks will rise again to much higher than the real valuation. The speculators temporarily destroyed their own trillions by selling in anticipation of other speculators selling, but they will recreate those trillions by buying in anticipation of other speculators buying after the news blows over.
Those “trillions” were not actually lost. Those trillions were never really there to begin with. Those trillions represent only the extra amount that speculators are willing to pay for shares of companies in excess of the real valuation for the purpose of buying from and selling to other speculators. Those are virtual trillions made entirely of, and supported only by, the hunches of speculators.
Speculation is a game of anticipating the flock.
Warren Buffet doesn’t participate in the speculation game. He’s a value investor. He figures out what a share of a company should be worth before he even looks at the most recent stock price.
Most traders are not value investors. Most traders are price speculators. They buy or sell shares of a stock depending if they think other speculators will be willing to pay a higher or lower price in the future. Speculating is a game of anticipating the movements of the flock and trying to make those moves earlier than most of the rest of the flock. The flock moves quickly but not instantaneously. Half of the birds will always be faster than the other half of the birds.
The trick to making money as a speculator is being in the faster half of the flock. It’s that simple.
Wish me luck.
Now that I think I understand speculation, I will try to anticipate the flock earlier in the future and trim off my own little slice of those virtual trillions, while everyone else is trying to get their slice off of me.
Raxin